Egypt’s role in Palestinian deal shows its new stance

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The fanfare touting the end of internal Palestinian strife can justifiably be met with skepticism, if not cynicism.

In spite of the buoyant mood among Palestinians, a united Palestinian front against Israel still seems far away at best.

The new deal signed by the radical Islamist Hamas from Gaza and the more pragmatic national Fatah leadership from the West Bank will show its first cracks once the lofty principles of the agreement are applied to decisions on the ground.

When funds and influence are up for grabs, personal ambition has so far proven to have a larger impact on Palestinian politicians than the attainment of national goals.

Already figures on both sides are at odds over security coordination with Israel, the demands of international donors about recognizing Israel’s right to exist and shunning the use of violence in the Palestinian struggle for independence.

Much of this represents life as usual among the Palestinians.

There is, however, a different angle to the deal hammered out in secret talks in Cairo. Egypt appears to be back in the game.

The new regime played a pivotal role in attaining the agreement, its first diplomatic achievement so far. And Egyptian officials are insisting they will continue brokering the issues.

This is a change.

Until Hosni Mubarak’s fall, Cairo unequivocally took Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’s side in the Palestinian struggle, isolating Hamas diplomatically and silently helping Israel to enforce the siege on Gaza. The aim was to force the Islamists’ hand and compel them to compromise.

That is apparently a thing of the past. The new deal between Hamas and Fatah was made possible by a radical turnaround in Egypt’s stance, which put pressure on Abbas to make concessions he did not envisage in his worst nightmares. Hamas got almost everything it asked for.

Even more disconcerting for Israelis is the fact that the agreement came as a complete surprise to them and to the United States, Egypt’s most important allies in the region.

While Mubarak carefully coordinated his policy with the two other Western powers in the region, the new regime does everything to distance itself, publicly and behind the scenes, from the Jewish state.

The Palestinian entente is only one sign of many: Egypt has announced its wish to restore diplomatic relations with Iran. Cairo has released Hamas activists from its prisons, and smuggling through Sinai has reportedly increased.

This new policy is the new political elite deference to public sentiment that is intensely hostile to Israel. A new poll found that 54 per cent of Egyptians think that the peace accords with Israel should be abolished. A similar proportion sympathizes with Hamas. Even Amr Moussa, the presumed front-runner in the presidential race, has questioned the peace treaty recently and stated that in the conflict with Hamas, Egypt should never come out on Israel’s side.

In its sweeping prosecution of former state officials, one of the subjects garnering a lot of attention is a deal selling natural gas to Israel.

Two former ministers have been put on trial for “committing the crimes of harming the country’s interests, squandering public funds and enabling others to make financial profits through selling and exporting Egyptian gas to the state of Israel at a price below international market rates at the time of the contract.”

In December, Israel signed a 20-year contract with Egypt worth more than $10 billion. The indictment claims the deal in question cost Egypt losses worth more than $714 million.

Israel maintains that it pays twice as much as other Arab countries for Egypt’s gas.

But economic facts are of little relevance. Egypt’s new leadership faces immense challenges at home, and foreign scapegoats serve it well to deflect public anger. In light of the public mood, Cairo apparently has opted to distance itself visibly from Washington and Israel.

The new Egypt seems to seek to establish itself as an assertive leader of the Arab world, as opposed to its former intimate partnership with the West. For the U.S. and its allies, this spells more unpredictability, and less influence in one of the world’s most volatile and strategically important regions.

© 2011 Gil Yaron - Making the Middle East Understandable